Probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis of thermally aged nuclear piping in a pressurized water reactor

Highlights: • Thermal aging embrittlement was considered in the PFM analysis of nuclear pipe. • Predicting program for pipe failure probability was developed based on thermal aging. • Cumulative failure probability is significantly affected by fracture toughness. • Cumulative failure probability is slightly affected by fatigue crack growth rate. • Tensile strength increase due to thermal aging slightly reduces pipe failure risk. - Abstract: A predicting program for pipe break probability based on thermal aging embrittlement was developed. In order for life prediction, evolutions of fracture toughness and tensile strength were estimated for a Z3CN20-09M piping steel using the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) procedure. To understand the influence of thermal aging on failure probability, different evolutions of fracture toughness, tensile strength and fatigue crack growth rate were employed in the prediction of cumulative failure probability. The results show that the cumulative failure probability for 40-year thermal aging increases by almost four times compared to without consideration of fracture toughness degradation. The cumulative failure probability is slightly affected by fatigue crack growth rate. The increase of tensile strength due to thermal aging reduces the risk of pipe failure. This work demonstrates that the degradation of fracture toughness due to thermal aging should be fully considered in the probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis of nuclear pressure pipes