Using life cycle revenue loss and Monte Carlo simulation as a prior and direct assessment of consequences of un-wished events

In this paper we address the importance of including the consideration of revenue loss into the safety analysis as well as system optimisation and modify the traditional Life Cycle Cost (LCC) into Life Cycle Revenue Loss (LCRL) as the criterion of optimisation and a quantitative assessment of the consequence of un-wished events, such as system unavailability. Through the Monte Carlo simulation technique and a simple scenario of decision making in a bidding process, we demonstrate the feasibility of our new LCRL model. (author)