A decision support technique for the analysis of autonomous and grid-connected renewable energy systems

There is an increasing interest in using novel methods to generate electrical energy using wind and solar energy sources. Unfortunately, such energy sources are intermittent, and, therefore, conventional sources must still be available to meet demand during critical periods. In addition, renewable energy technologies are still expensive in general, although extensive research programs are being conducted to overcome this disadvantage. Hence, reliability, economic assessment and environmental impacts are three objectives to be satisfied simultaneously when designing either an autonomous or a grid-connected hybrid power generation system. The installation of any of these two systems should, undoubtedly, be preceded by an assessment of the available resources at the candidate site. In addition, many other factors are to be studied, including economics of transmission lines, site constraints, distances etc. In this thesis, the subjective judgments of various experts, related to the overall approach, are quantified and prioritized using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Two systems have been considered, an autonomous wind-solar-diesel-battery system and a grid-connected system composed of wind, solar, battery and a grid option. The trade-off/risk method, which is a multi objective planning technique under uncertainty, is used to optimize the size of the system components, so as to give a robust design. A reasonable compromise among the conflicting design objectives in 3-D is sought, under most foreseeable conditions and uncertainties, but with the cost being the dominating objective. Finally, hedging analysis to reduce risk is conducted to cope with the occurrence of any risky future. (author)