Least cost analysis of Belarus electricity generation system with focus on nuclear option

A basic feature of the Belarus electricity system is that about 50% of the installed power capacity is used to produce heat for the central heating supply system. The Republic has one of the most developed districts heating system in Europe. The installation started in 1930, and developed very fast after 1945. Co-generation of electricity and thermal energy in central power plants has played a fundamental role in the local economy. Presently, Belarus electricity generation system includes: Total installed capacities of condensing turbines 3665 MW; Total installed capacities of co-generation turbines 3889 MW. It is expected that in 2020 in accordance with electricity demand forecast peak load demand will be equaled approximately 9500 MW. Taking into account that operation time of 60 % existent co-generation turbine and 70 % of condensing turbine can be extended up to 2020 during the period 2005 - 2020 it is necessity to install about 1500 MW of new co-generation units and about 2000 MW of condensing turbines. To select the least cost scenario for electricity generation system expansion improved computer code WASP-IV for Windows had been used. As far code WASP-IV do not allow finding out optimal solution for electricity generation system with high share of co-generation directly the methodology of application of this program for this case had been developed. Methodology is based on utilization of code WASP-IV for simulation condensing turbines and module BALANCE for modeling co-generation part of the system. The scenarios for the electricity system expansion plan included only conventional technologies. Presently, the works connected with the preparedness for NPP construction in the Republic including site survey for NPP are being carried out. The first stage of siting process according to the IAEA classification has been completed. It was based on a set of criteria answered to A Safety Guide of the IAEA Site Survey for Nuclear Power Plants and requirements to be accepted in Russia for NPP placement sites. The result of the preliminary studies had shown that there are at least three suitable sites for construction of the NPP. It allows including nuclear power option in the list of possible technologies for electricity generation. Optimal expansion plan of the electricity generation system based on installation new combine cycle units, co-generation units and nuclear power plants has been developed. Optimal least cost expansion plan has been chosen as a result of comparative analysis of the three scenarios: Scenario 1: Steam turbine, Combined cycle, Gas turbine, Co-generation turbine, Natural gas; Scenario 2: Steam turbine, Combined cycle, Gas turbine, Co-generation turbine, Natural gas, Coal; Scenario 3: Steam turbine, Combined cycle, Gas turbine, Co-generation turbine, Natural gas, Nuclear. Using WASP III plus computer code optimal electricity generation system expansion plan for each scenario had been found. Calculations had been carried out for discount rate equaled 8 %. The results of calculation are shown that electricity system expansion plan based on utilization of coal as a fuel has highest generation cost. Otherwise, implementation on nuclear power will allow decreasing generation cost up to 3.26 cents/kWh. In accordance with calculation optimal solution includes construction four nuclear units and first unit has to start up in 2014 year. For Scenario based on natural gas and nuclear fuel mix is expected to be least total electricity generation cost and it is most economically attractive option.(author)