Nuclear power: An evolving scenario. 2 March 2004, Brussels, Belgium. European Parliament Conference: 'Energy Choices for Europe'

The current state of nuclear power remains a very mixed picture - but with some signs that change could be on the horizon. At the end of last year there were 440 nuclear power units operating worldwide. Together, they supply about 16% of the world's electricity. That percentage has remained relatively steady for almost 20 years, meaning that nuclear electricity generation has grown at essentially the same rate as total electricity use worldwide. Nuclear electricity generation is concentrated in developed countries. Current expansion and growth prospects for nuclear power are centred in Asia. Of the 31 units under construction worldwide, 18 are located in India, Japan, South Korea and China, including Taiwan. Twenty of the last 29 reactors to be connected to the grid are also in the Far East and South Asia. Although the focus of this international effort was on improving safety, the secondary benefit was a steady increase in nuclear plant availability and productivity. Some analysts believe the case for new nuclear construction in Europe is gaining new ground, for a number of reasons: Carbon Emissions, Security of Supply, Comparative Public Health Risk. As we look to the future, certain key challenges are, in my view, of direct relevance to the future viability of nuclear power. The greatest challenge lies in the development of clear global and national strategies for the management and disposal of spent fuel and high level radioactive waste. A second key challenge relates to safety performance. The third key challenge - nuclear security - should come as no surprise. A related but separate challenge is the prevention of nuclear weapons proliferation. A final challenge is innovation, encouraging the development of new reactor and fuel cycle technologies. To be successful, these innovative technologies should address concerns related to nuclear safety, proliferation and waste generation, and must be able to generate electricity at competitive prices. In conclusion, one could point out that the current 'holding period' for nuclear power in Europe will soon come to an end. In the near future, Europe will be faced with important energy decisions. With an increasing number of nuclear power plants reaching their original design lifetimes, Europe will have to decide how to replace its retiring nuclear power plants. Making these decisions will depend, to some extent, on where you choose to place your emphasis, for example, on exploring available coal and natural gas resources, improving the performance and cost of renewables, or placing greater reliance on imports. What seems clear is that the only baseload option available today with low carbon emissions comparable to nuclear power is large hydropower, and sites for hydropower expansion are somewhat limited in Europe. Whether decisions involve decommissioning, extending the life of existing reactors, or building the next generation of European nuclear power plants, the IAEA will be ready to assist you in your efforts to ensure a safe and secure energy supply