A coupled human-natural system analysis of water yield in the Yellow River basin, China

Highlights: • This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of water yield using the irrigated cropland water model and land use data. • Water consumption dominated the water yield variability in the midstream YRB (95.73%±0.5%) • The increased local water use and change in water yield from upstream increased the human water use stress downstream. In response to the potential water conflict caused by climate change and increased population, an integrated water yield analysis from the perspective of the coupled human-natural system is clearly required. This paper conducted an integrated water yield analysis in the Yellow River basin (YRB), China, with applications for irrigated cropland water modeling and many field, statistical and satellite images. We found the following during 2000–2017: (1) The irrigation water consumption, rain-fed water consumption of cropland and rain-fed water consumption of natural ecosystems all increased significantly. (2) Ecological restoration caused a consequence of the 81.7 10⁸ m³ water consumption transfer from cropland to natural ecosystems. (3) Water consumption variability was strongly related to irrigation expansion and ecological restoration, and this variability dominated the high water yield variability in the midstream YRB (95.73% ± 0.5%). (4) The increased downstream human water use stress was mainly affected by increased downstream water use and upstream water yield change, with contribution ratios of 1.67 and −0.72, respectively. The study declares the intense relationship between ecological restoration, crop production and socioeconomic activities within the water-limited river basin. This research also highlights that synthetic river basin management is essential to balance the water demand between different sectors and between the upper stream and downstream sections of a basin.