Computational implementation of a systems prioritization methodology for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: A preliminary example

A systems prioritization methodology (SPM) is under development to provide guidance to the US DOE on experimental programs and design modifications to be supported in the development of a successful licensing application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) for the geologic disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. The purpose of the SPM is to determine the probabilities that the implementation of different combinations of experimental programs and design modifications, referred to as activity sets, will lead to compliance. Appropriate tradeoffs between compliance probability, implementation cost and implementation time can then be made in the selection of the activity set to be supported in the development of a licensing application. Descriptions are given for the conceptual structure of the SPM and the manner in which this structure determines the computational implementation of an example SPM application. Due to the sophisticated structure of the SPM and the computational demands of many of its components, the overall computational structure must be organized carefully to provide the compliance probabilities for the large number of activity sets under consideration at an acceptable computational cost. Conceptually, the determination of each compliance probability is equivalent to a large numerical integration problem. 96 refs., 31 figs., 36 tabs