Energy, electricity and nuclear power estimates for the period up to 2030. July 2005 ed

Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication - currently in its twenty-fifth edition - containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2030. Nuclear data presented in Table 1 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA's Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for 2004, however, are estimated, since the latest available information from the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations is for 2002. Population data originate from the 'World Population Prospects' (2003 Revision), published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2004 values are estimates. The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclear power up to the year 2030 is presented as low and high estimates in order to encompass the uncertainties associated with the future. These estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must constantly be subjected to critical review. The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbers over the last years by international, national and private organizations are based on a multiplicity of different assumptions and different aggregating procedures, which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input data as: - World and regional scenarios of economic development; - Correlation of economic growth and energy consumption; - Assumptions on physical, economic and political constraints applying to energy production and consumption; - Future prices of different energy sources. The projections presented in this booklet are based on a compromise among: - National projections supplied by each country for a recent OECD/NEA study; - Indicators of development published by the World Bank in its World Development Indicators; - Estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power growth continuously carried out by the IAEA in the wake of recent global and regional projections made by other international organizations. The nuclear generating capacity estimates presented are derived from a country by country bottom-up approach. They are established by a group of experts participating each year in the IAEA's consultancy on Nuclear Capacity Projections and based upon a review of nuclear power projects and programmes in Member States. The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but not extreme underlying assumptions on the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible. In the low estimates, the present barriers to nuclear power development are assumed to prevail in most countries during the coming three decades: - Low economic and electricity demand growth rates in OECD countries; - Public opposition to nuclear power, leading to policy decisions not to consider the nuclear option in spite of its competitive costs and potential contribution to reducing environmental impacts from electricity generation; - Institutional and financing issues preventing the implementation of previously planned nuclear programmes, in particular in countries in transition and in developing countries; - Inadequate mechanisms for nuclear technology transfer and nuclear project funding in developing countries. The high estimates reflect a moderate revival of nuclear power development that could result in particular from a more comprehensive comparative assessment of the different options for electricity generation, integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects. They are based upon a review of national nuclear power programmes, assessing their technical and economic feasibility. They assume that some policy measures would be taken to facilitate the implementation of these programmes, such as strengthening of international cooperation, enhanced technology adaptation and transfer, and establishment of innovative funding mechanisms. These estimates also take into account the global concern over climate change caused by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the signing of the recent Kyoto Protocol. Beginning with the 25th edition of this publication, the data on electrical energy are converted to joules differently than in the previous issues