Two proposed convergence criteria for Monte Carlo solutions

The central limit theorem (CLT) can be applied to a Monte Carlo solution if two requirements are satisfied: (1) The random variable has a finite mean and a finite variance; and (2) the number N of independent observations grows large. When these two conditions are satisfied, a confidence interval (CI) based on the normal distribution with a specified coverage probability can be formed. The first requirement is generally satisfied by the knowledge of the Monte Carlo tally being used. The Monte Carlo practitioner has a limited number of marginal methods to assess the fulfillment of the second requirement, such as statistical error reduction proportional to 1/√N with error magnitude guidelines. Two proposed methods are discussed in this paper to assist in deciding if N is large enough: estimating the relative variance of the variance (VOV) and examining the empirical history score probability density function (pdf)