Development of a regional capacity expansion plan in the Russian Federation. Application of the WASP Model

The Wien Automatic System Planning Package (WASP) is used for the development of optimal capacity expansion plans in Russia. The object of the WASP study is the Central power pool, which is the largest power pool in Russia and has an essential share of nuclear power in electricity generation. The objective of the study is to assess the long-term competitiveness of nuclear power in the region. The major features of the power system analyzed with WASP are the following: 1) four types of electricity generators are considered: condensity fossil fuel plants, cogeneration fossil fuel plants, nuclear power plants and hydraulic plants; 2) nine fuel categories are considered: gas/fuel oil fuel, several types of coal and several nuclear fuels; 3) escalation of capital, operation and maintenance, and fuel costs as a result of economic transition is explicitly modeled. Under these assumptions, a regional optimal capacity expansion plan is developed that showed the following: (a) Until 2004 there is no need for new electricity generation capacities due to the drop in demand in the 90s, certain lifetime margin of existing capacities, committed additions of co-generators and planned refurbishment/repowering measures; (b) The structure of the optimal capacity mix confirms that nuclear power can retain its role as one of the major electricity generation sources in the region. The most important factor with a positive of effect upon the competitiveness of nuclear power plants is the projected escalation of the prices of fossil fuels; (c) The application of WASP has proved that the model can serve as a valuable planning tool at the power pool level in Russia. (author). 14 refs, 8 figs, 10 tabs