Spatiotemporal analysis of rural energy transition and upgrading in developing countries: The case of China

Highlights: • Energy upgrade is promoted by interprovincial coordinating of economy and resource. • Energy upgrade is determined by change of farmers' preference for low-quality energy. • Energy upgrade can be promoted together in agriculture and rural life. Rural energy upgrade in developing countries is an essential part of the world climate mitigation work. To systematically promote rural energy upgrade, we took the case of China and used a spatiotemporal model to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of energy ladders in agriculture and rural life of developing countries. The proportion of clean energy consumption in agriculture showed an interprovincial competition effect, whereas the proportion of oil consumption in rural life showed a demonstration effect. Severe reliance on coal hinders energy upgrade. Urbanisation has improved the clean level of energy use in agriculture but does not significantly affect the in rural life. Technological progress has increased the proportion of clean energy consumption but has little impact on the proportion of oil and gas consumption. The abundance of coal resources has prompted the massive use of coal and coal-fired power. Energy-use habit promotes the use of all types of energy. Except for that of gas, the consumption of different types of energy in agriculture and rural life mutually promotes. In summary, the development of energy technologies should be established based on the regional resource endowment and economic development level. Also, subsidy principles for clean energy projects should be established based on the development level of the agriculture and residents' income. Rural energy upgrade is coordinated with urbanisation and the modernisation of the agriculture and rural life styles while paying attention to the mutual promotion between the agriculture and rural life. During the change of the energy-use habit under policy guidance, attention must be paid to interprovincial cooperation. Finally, a reasonable market mechanism should be established to promote energy upgrade.