Casualty Risks Induced by Primary Fragmentation Hazards from High-explosive munitions

Highlights: • New stochastic model for casualty risks to fragmentation hazard. • Probabilistic models of fragment generation, trajectories, and human vulnerability. • Numerical simulations for fragment densities and casualty risks. • Safety evacuation distance obtained based on the casualty risks. Fatalities and injuries are mainly attributed to primary fragmentation if accidental or malevolent detonation of high-explosive munitions occurs in an open space. This study aims to develop a simulation-based approach to assess individual casualty risks from primary fragments naturally generated by detonation of high-explosive munitions, which enables a stochastic characterization of fragment generation, trajectories, modelling uncertainties, and human vulnerability. The proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example estimating the fatality and injury risks for an individual in a standing position exposed to the detonation of a single 105 mm projectile. The results suggest that, as expected, the individual fatality and injury risks decrease with an increasing stand-off distance. At a stand-off distance greater than 40 m, an individual is more likely to suffer injuries rather than fatality. The safety distance obtained from the present study is 97 m which is close to but less conservative than a safety distance of 104 m in existing literature and standards.