Probabilistic analysis of fire risks for the design of fire protection systems in nuclear power facilities

This paper presents a complete probabilistic methodology for evaluating performance of fire protection systems (FPS) in nuclear power facilities. The methodology is based upon assuming a reasonable fire growth-suppression model which considers the entire spectrum of future events. The suppression effort, which is random, is a function of the FPS component performances and is modeled in terms of relevant component design parameters. The interaction of the suppression effort with the fire load is considered, as is the interaction of the fire load with the support structure. An example FPS is presented for illustration of the methodology, and several design-related problems are solved. Finally, a discussion of three Markov models which can be used in growth suppression problems is presented