Nuclear Development Scenarios in the Context of Climate Policies and Development of Disruptive Technologies

To explore the role of nuclear power in the future development of society a several scenarios were built. The methodology involved the identification of key energy demand drivers, generation of a variety of alternative scenarios, checking plausibility and consistency, and constructing associated narratives. The complexity resulting from the long-term perspective, the numerous parameters and their associated uncertainties (e.g., those related to evolutions of the key parameters)is approached by progressive simplification. By considering the most relevant influencing factors and their variability, a set of four scenarios was retained: Nuclear Status Quo (unchanged pace of nuclear development, not much influenced by an acceleration of renewables); Nuclear Phase-Out (no new nuclear project, progressive phase-out); Nuclear and Renewables Synergy (nuclear development to support accelerated implementation of renewables), and Nuclear Renaissance (the nuclear share accelerated by the development of new reactor technologies). Considerations for each scenario are discussed in order to offer the basis for projections and deliberations in the policy decision-making process. (author).