Decommissioning Cost Estimate Uncertainty: What is It, How Do You Deal with It? - 16527

The issue of decommissioning cost estimate uncertainty has returned to plague the industry. As we gain more hands-on experience, the expectations are that the cost estimates for future projects should be more accurate and the uncertainties reduced. To some extent this is true, but there remains the issue of how to deal with the major elements of uncertainty of allowances, contingency and risk. The OECD/NEA and the IAEA have joined forces through its member states and outside consultants to bring definition and insight into how to deal with uncertainty. The author has been a participant in this joint organization effort since the outset two years ago. This paper will present the current state-of-the-art in the definitions, approaches, and limitations in the topic of uncertainty. (authors)