Macroeconomic modelling of international carbon tax regimes

An econometric model of fossil fuel demand has been estimated for eight OECD countries, relating coal, oil and gas demands to GDP and prices. In addition, for five of these countries, a model of endogenous technical progress has been estimated, representing the decline in energy intensity as a function of price and macroeconomic variables. This aims to include both price induced innovation in energy and structural change in the economy as long term determinants of energy consumption. A number of possible international carbon/energy tax agreements are simulated, showing the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and comparing the two models. It is shown that the endogenous technical change model does include an important element that is missed in the more conventional approach. However in the long run the magnitude of taxes required to stabilise or reduce emissions would be large, and it is suggested that other non-price policies will become more important. (Author)