Probabilistic safety analysis for nuclear fuel cycle facilities, an exemplary application for a fuel fabrication plant

In order to assess the risk of complex technical systems, the application of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in addition to the Deterministic Safety Analysis becomes of increasing interest. Besides nuclear installations this applies to e. g. chemical plants. A PSA is capable of expanding the basis for the risk assessment and of complementing the conventional deterministic analysis, by which means the existing safety standards of that facility can be improved if necessary. In the available paper, the differences between a PSA for a nuclear power plant and a nuclear fuel cycle facility (NFCF) are discussed in shortness and a basic concept for a PSA for a nuclear fuel cycle facility is described. Furthermore, an exemplary PSA for a partial process in a fuel assembly fabrication facility is described. The underlying data are partially taken from an older German facility, other parts are generic. Moreover, a selected set of reported events corresponding to this partial process is taken as auxiliary data. The investigation of this partial process from the fuel fabrication as an example application shows that PSA methods are in principle applicable to nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Here, the focus is on preventing an initiating event, so that the system analysis is directed to the modeling of fault trees for initiating events. The quantitative results of this exemplary study are given as point values for the average occurrence frequencies. They include large uncertainties because of the limited documentation and data basis available, and thus have only methodological character. While quantitative results are given, further detailed information on process components and process flow is strongly required for robust conclusions with respect to the real process. (authors)