Impact of warmer weather on electricity sector emissions due to building energy use

Most US energy consumption occurs in buildings, with cooling demands anticipated to increase net building electricity use under warmer conditions. The electricity generation units that respond to this demand are major contributors to sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), both of which have direct impacts on public health, and contribute to the formation of secondary pollutants including ozone and fine particulate matter. This study quantifies temperature-driven changes in power plant emissions due to increased use of building air conditioning. We compare an ambient temperature baseline for the Eastern US to a model-calculated mid-century scenario with summer-average temperature increases ranging from 1 C to 5 C across the domain. We find a 7% increase in summer electricity demand and a 32% increase in non-coincident peak demand. Power sector modeling, assuming only limited changes to current generation resources, calculated a 16% increase in emissions of NO_x and an 18% increase in emissions of SO₂. There is a high level of regional variance in the response of building energy use to climate, and the response of emissions to associated demand. The East North Central census region exhibited the greatest sensitivity of energy demand and associated emissions to climate. (letter)