The Research of Monte-Carlo Method for Aviation Materials Demand Forecast Based on the Life of the Reliability

With the rapid development of the aviation industry, the increasing number of missions and the impact of other new circumstances, the contradiction between supply and demand in aviation materials has become increasingly prominent. Consequently, more uncertainty and unpredictability in spare parts' demand, as well as the absence of accurate value of holding, overstocking and backordering costs, result in traditional inventory control policies ineffective. In order to make better use of the existing stock aviation material resources, it is necessary to study the optimization of aviation materials inventory management. In this paper, the reliability analysis of aviation materials maintenance data is conducted to grasp the occurrence rules of aviation materials failures, determine the failure distribution function, and establish a mathematical model of spare parts guarantee and demand based on stochastic process theory. The Monte-Carlo simulation method is used to calculate the aviation materials demand. The calculation results show that the method can achieve the purpose of controlling the inventory level through the demand under varying guarantee degrees, which makes the management of aviation materials more scientific. (paper)