Assessing the role of energy in development and climate policies in large developing countries

The paper discusses a number of key conceptual issues related to the role of energy in development and its potential synergies and tradeoffs with climate change. The relationship between economic development and energy over time is discussed and illustrated by data from Brazil, China, India and South Africa. It is concluded that energy plays an important role as a productivity enhancing factor in economic development and in human well being and several policy goals related to sustainable development (SD), energy and climate can be integrated. However, meeting all these policy goals requires a special effort and can imply costs. An analytical approach that can be used to assess development, energy and climate policies is introduced and empirical indicators of Sustainable development trends for the period 2000-2030 are presented. In a pragmatic way, it is proposed to use indicators of economic, social, and environmental SD dimensions such as costs, employment generation, energy access, local and global emissions, income distribution, and local participation in the evaluation of specific policies. The approach is developed and tested as part of the Development, Energy, and Climate project which is international project cooperation between the UNEP Risoe Centre and teams in Brazil, China, India and South Africa. The results demonstrate that there is a huge potential for energy efficiency improvements in the energy systems in these countries and thereby cost savings and reduced emissions intensity. However, the implied greenhouse gas emissions depend on fuel and technology compositions and reduction will imply that specific policies are put in place. (au)