Analysis of the seismic hazard to an underground waste repository

Conclusions are: The consequence associated with intense vibratory shaking of a well-designed repository is essentially negligible. The specification of an appropriate seismic vibratory design criteria could best be accomplished with a Bayesian seismic hazard assessment, using geologic slip rates as input. The consequence associated with fault displacement is very site specific and dependent on the host geologic media and its permeability changes in response to fault displacement. The probability of faulting through a repository in its million year design life is rather high, principally because of a high probability of primary or secondary faulting on undetected faults. The faulting probability can be minimized by deploying sophisticated site certification programs. High resolution microseismic surveillance seems to be most appropriate. The author's judgement is that the repository simulation program can neglect consequences associated with shaking of the repository, but that the probability of significant fault displacement through the repository during its design life should be conservatively taken as one