Gas Migration Project: Risk Assessment Tool and Computational Analyses to Investigate Wellbore/Mine Interactions, Secretary's Potash Area, Southeastern New Mexico

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), US Department of the Interior has asked Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to perform scientific studies relevant to technical issues that arise in the development of co-located resources of potash and petroleum in southeastern New Mexico in the Secretary's Potash Area. The BLM manages resource development, issues permits and interacts with the State of New Mexico in the process of developing regulations, in an environment where many issues are disputed by industry stakeholders. The present report is a deliverable of the study of the potential for gas migration from a wellbore to a mine opening in the event of wellbore leakage, a risk scenario about which there is disagreement among stakeholders and little previous site specific analysis. One goal of this study was to develop a framework that required collaboratively developed inputs and analytical approaches in order to encourage stakeholder participation and to employ ranges of data values and scenarios. SNL presents here a description of a basic risk assessment (RA) framework that will fulfill the initial steps of meeting that goal. SNL used the gas migration problem to set up example conceptual models, parameter sets and computer models and as a foundation for future development of RA to support BLM resource development.