The future of nuclear power - An interdisciplinary MIT study

Full text: An interdisciplinary MIT faculty group studied the future of nuclear power because it is an important option for meeting electricity needs without emitting carbon dioxide. The economics, safety, waste management, and nonproliferation challenges of enabling a possible global mid-century deployment of about 1000 GWe were addressed through a set of findings and policy recommendations: Such a mid-century growth scenario will be based primarily on thermal reactors operated in a once-through mode; A merchant plant model of costs shows that, if nuclear power is to be competitive with coal and natural gas, industry must demonstrate its plausible but unproved claims of significant reactor capital cost reduction and the social costs of greenhouse gas emission need to be internalized. For the United States, we recommend electricity production tax credits for a set of 'first mover' plants; Long term storage of spent fuel prior to geological emplacement, specifically including international spent fuel storage, should be systematically incorporated into waste management strategies. The scope of waste management R and D should be expanded significantly; an extensive program on deep borehole disposal is an example; The current international safeguards regime should be strengthened to meet the nonproliferation challenges of globally expanded nuclear power. The Additional Protocol needs to be implemented; the accounting/inspection regime should be supplemented with strong surveillance and containment systems for new fuel cycle facilities; safeguards should be implemented in a risk-based framework keyed to fuel cycle activity; A major international effort should be launched to develop the analytical tools and to collect essential scientific and engineering data for integrated assessment of fuel cycles. Large demonstration projects are not justified in the absence of advanced analysis and simulation capability; Public acceptance is critical to expansion of nuclear power. In the United States, the public does not yet see nuclear power as a way to address global warming. The full report is available electronically at http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower/. (author)