Oil spill trajectory modelling and environmental vulnerability mapping using GNOME model and GIS

Highlights: • Oil spill coastal sensitivity maps were developed considering climatic variations. • GNOME model was used for the prediction of the oil spill trajectory. • Geographical Information System Kernel density spatial analysis tool is significant for the development of vulnerability map. • The novel coastal environmental vulnerability maps are particularly useful for decision making in a changing climate. This study develops an oil spill environmental vulnerability model for predicting and mapping the oil slick trajectory pattern in Kota Tinggi, Malaysia. The impact of seasonal variations on the vulnerability of the coastal resources to oil spill was modelled by estimating the quantity of coastal resources affected across three climatic seasons (northeast monsoon, southwest monsoon and pre-monsoon). Twelve 100 m³ (10,000 splots) medium oil spill scenarios were simulated using General National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Operational Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME) model. The output was integrated with coastal resources, comprising biological, socio-economic and physical shoreline features. Results revealed that the speed of an oil slick (40.8 m per minute) is higher during the pre-monsoon period in a southwestern direction and lower during the northeast monsoon (36.9 m per minute). Evaporation, floating and spreading are the major weathering processes identified in this study, with approximately 70% of the slick reaching the shoreline or remaining in the water column during the first 24 h (h) of the spill. Oil spill impacts were most severe during the southwest monsoon, and physical shoreline resources are the most vulnerable to oil spill in the study area. The study concluded that variation in climatic seasons significantly influence the vulnerability of coastal resources to marine oil spill.