Volcanic hazard assessment for disposal of high-level radioactive waste

Volcanic hazard studies for disposal of high-level radioactive waste pose a number of unique problems. These include the long time frame of hazard assessment (104 to 106 yr), the limited geologic record of volcanic activity at disposal sites and the political sensitivity of this national problem. The major variables affecting volcanic hazards are the structure of magma feeder systems at repository depths and the magma fragmentation and dispersal energy of eruptions. The latter is generally controlled by magma composition and the presence or absence of groundwater. Long-lived volcanic fields (> 1 m.y.) provide the greatest potential risk for waste disposal, but these can be avoided by proper site selection. Short-lived volcanic fields are more difficult to avoid but are generally mafic in composition, which results in smaller disruption zones and explosive eruptions of lower energy than those of long-lived centers. Volcanic hazards are evaluated through risk assessment, which is a product of probability and consequences. These studies have been completed for a potential waste disposal site in the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Cenozoic volcanism of the NTS region is divided into three distinct episodes. The youngest episode, 3.7 to 0.3 m.y., comprises scattered, monogenetic Strombolian centers of small volume (< 1 km3). Rates of volcanic activity for the NTS region are estimated to be about 10-6 event/yr, based on vent counts through time and calculation of rates of magma production. The conditions probability of disruption of the possible waste disposal site at the NTS by basaltic volcanism is bounded by the range of 10-8 to 10-10 yr-1. Consequences, expressed as radiological release levels, were evaluated by assuming disruption of a repository by basaltic magmas fed along narrow dikes