Limiting global warming to below 1.5 °C from 2 °C: An energy-system-based multi-model analysis for China

Highlights: • China can achieve warming-limit goal to below 1.5 °C from 2 °C estimated by IAMs. • Shifting to 1.5 °C means further reduction of emissions up to 22% and 10-year-advanced peaking time. • From 2 °C to 1.5 °C, primary energy consumption will decrease by 22% to 28% • Enhancing the goal to below 1.5 °C from 2 °C, policy costs will further increase by up to 37%. • The multi-model analysis provides underlying implications for China's sustainable transition. Enhancing the temperature-increase limit to below 1.5 °C from 2 °C is of great significance for climate change mitigation, and this stricter limit challenges China's role in combating global warming. This study aims to explore how China addresses such challenges in the attainment of this more stringent warming-limit goal through sustainable transition. By using multi-model analysis, the robustness of findings is enhanced, while providing appropriate options based on model comparisons. The 1.5 °C limit means further reduction of emissions—up to 22%—and a ten-year earlier peak. From 2 °C to 1.5 °C, primary energy consumption will decrease by 22% to 28%, while policy costs will further increase by up to 37%. Greater technological progress facilitates larger contributions to CO₂ emission reductions, given the shift from 2 °C to 1.5 °C. With diminishing marginal policy costs, the energy system can be reconstructed by initiating early actions on low-carbon and negative-emission technology development, and in the long term by coordinating state-of-the-art alternative technologies. This study provides reliable assessments of goal-strengthened achievements for China, including emission reductions, technology development, structural improvement, and economic performance for China. Furthermore, this study's multi-model comparisons show underlying implications for sustainable transition, which could also be conducive to the global practice of addressing climate change.