The proliferation potential of gas centrifuge enrichment technology - Eroding the NPT deal?

The problem of civil-military ambivalent use of sensitive nuclear technologies is currently undermining the stability and the future of the nonproliferation regime. The talk starts by giving a summary of the recent developments in the ongoing controversy over the iranian nuclear program including a brief technical analysis of the current status of the Iranian centrifuge program. An overview of other enrichment activities worldwide and an estimate of future enrichment activities is complemented by an analysis of several possible scenarios for the production of highly enriched uranium. Scenarios include covert production and break-out at known facilities and production by undeclared ones. For the analysis the cascade simulation tool MATHCASC is used, and its new features are presented. The talk briefly summarizes several proposed solutions to the proliferation problem of centrifuge technology, trying to broaden the perspective from the case of Iran to the general use of this central sensitive technology.