Project SeEiS - Substitution of conventional electricity generation by renewable energies. Modeling the substitution effects of renewable energies in the German and European electricity sector and their impact on the emission accounting of renewable energy sources. Sub-report: Methodology and data basis

Since 2007, the Federal Environment Agency has been compiling a regularly updated balance of emissions avoided by German renewable energy sources (RES) for the sectors electricity, heat and transport. The aim of the SeEiS research project is to further develop the methodology for quantifying the substitution of conventional electricity generation by RES. With regard to the increasing interconnectedness of the European electricity market, the extent to which the growing RES feed-in in the German electricity grid influences the conventional electricity generation abroad will be examined. These effects must be adequately taken into account in the emission balance. This report presents the methodology applied and the data basis used in the SeEiS project. The quantification of the substitution effects is based on a comparison of the real development of the European electricity sector with a plausible counterfactual development path without German RES generation. In the latter case, the European electricity market model ELTRAMOD is applied to determine a hypothetical power plant portfolio without German RES. Subsequently, the European power plant dispatch for the real and the counterfactual case is calculated in an hourly resolution. From the differences between the real and the counterfactual power plant dispatch, the substitution effects of the German RES generation are derived.