Baseline projection of U.S. non-utility generation. Final report, August 1990-July 1991

Non-utility generation (NUG) has made a significant contribution to the U.S. electric supply in the last decade. The NUG market has evolved to include projects designed specifically to compete in providing electricity to utilities, not just electricity and steam for industrial internal use. The projections of future NUG and utility capacity were performed using a simulation model that treats NUG as part of the electricity market. All new base/intermediate load capacity is assumed to be competitively bid, and projects are chosen based on their costs. Two Base Cases were developed, with and without NUG, in order to evaluate the impact that NUG has on the electric system. In addition, three sensitivity cases were developed and executed to test the implications of alternative hypotheses about NUG financing criteria, the ability of NUG to compete for high-intermediate load, and the potential of accounting for environmental externalities in utility planning decisions. The results of the analysis can be used to refine GRI's projections of NUG that are incorporated into the Baseline Projections