Radiation carcinogenesis in man: influence of dose-response models and risk projection models in the estimation of risk coefficients following exposure to low-level radiation

The somatic effects of concern in human populations exposed to low doses and low dose rates of ionizing radiations are those that may be induced by mutation in individual cells, singly or in small numbers. The most important of these is considered to be cancer induction. Current knowledge of the carcinogenic effect of radiation in man has been reviewed in two recent reports: the 1977 UNSCEAR Report; and the 1980 BEIR-III Report. Both reports emphasize that cancers of the breast, thyroid, hematopoietic tissues, lung, and bone can be induced by radiation. Other cancers, including the stomach, pancreas, pharynx, lymphatic, and perhaps all tissues of the body, may also be induced by radiation. Both reports calculate risk estimates in absolute and relative terms for low-dose, low-LET whole-body exposure, and for leukemia, breast cancer, thyroid cancer, lung cancer, and other cancers. These estimates derive from exposure and cancer incidence data at high doses and at high dose rates. There are no compelling scientific reasons to apply these values of risk to the very low doses and low dose rates of concern in human radiation protection. In the absence of reliable human data for calculating risk estimates, dose-response models have been constructed from extrapolations of animal data and high-dose-rate human data for projection of estimated risks at low doses and low dose rates