Alternative solutions for meeting energy demand of Bulgaria in the future

Three scenarios for development of energy consumption based on final energy parameters (without regarding fuel consumption and losses): 1. Energy-effective variant regarding fast introducing of new effective technologies and improved use of fuels and energy just after 2000 with substantial investments (though in conditions of currency board it is not realistic); 2. Probable variant forecasting introducing of high-effective technologies after 2005, long-term investments and substantial changes in consumer behaviour in longer period and 3. Pessimistic variant supposing too slow introducing of high-effective technologies after 2010 with prolonged, drift-along period unfavourable for economic and social development of the country and for its integration into European structures. The GNP at high energy consumption would make the Bulgarian production internationally uncompetitive. The three scenarios have been made using the new version of the BALANCE model, WINDOWS graphic interface (ENPEP). The energy flows are presented as disintegrated for each of the main economic branches (i.g. industry, transport, agriculture) and their components as chemical, metallurgical, etc. The total energy sector as well as electricity and renewable sources are presented separately also