On the statistical meaning of environmental models used in deriving intervention reference levels

A stochastic simulation of the (forage, cow milk, thyroid) exposure pathway shows, for a given peak concentration of 131I in cow milk following an acute contamination, a lognormal distribution of the 60 days committed thyroid equivalent dose, with a geometric standard deviation of 2. The statistical variability of the values predicted by environmental models should thus be taken into account for a sound optimization of radiological protection in an emergency situation. (author)