Some calculations of the failure statistics of coated fuel particles

Statistical variations of coated fuel particle parameters were considered in stress model calculations and the resulting particle failure fraction versus burn-up evaluated. Variations in the following parameters were considered simultaneously: kernel diameter and porosity, thickness of the buffer, seal, silicon carbide and inner and outer pyrocarbon layers, which were all assumed to be normally distributed, and the silicon carbide fracture stress which was assumed to follow a Weibull distribution. Two methods, based respectively on random sampling and convolution of the variations were employed and applied to particles manufactured by Dragon Project and RFL Springfields. Convolution calculations proved the more satisfactory. In the present calculations variations in the silicon carbide fracture stress caused the greatest spread in burn-up for a given change in failure fraction; kernel porosity is the next most important parameter. (author)