Are the most extreme scenarios considered by the IPCC realistic?
Creators
- 1. Laboratoire interdisciplinaire des energies de demain, Universite Paris-Cite, Paris (France)
- 2. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-Universite Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
Description
The anticipation of climate change as well as climate policies are partly based on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this study, we assess the potential emissions of carbon dioxide over the 21. century against the world's fossil fuel reserves coming from two sources: first, International Energy Agency's World energy outlook and BP's Statistical review of world energy; second, an extrapolation of production data using Hubbert's model. In both cases, the volume of these estimated reserves is not compatible with the most emissive trajectories considered by the IPCC and limits global warming to a maximum of about 3 deg. C by 2100. Besides, the expected decrease in the availability of oil and natural gas makes the development of decarbonated energy resources crucial for the economic dynamics of our societies. (authors)
Availability note (English)
Available from doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.37053/lameteorologie-2023-0042Abstract (French)
L'anticipation du changement climatique et le choix des politiques climatiques reposent en partie sur les scenarios d'emissions de gaz a effet de serre utilises par le Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'evolution du climat (Giec). Dans le present article, nous evaluons les emissions possibles de dioxyde de carbone au cours du XXIe siecle a l'aune des reserves mondiales de combustibles fossiles provenant de deux sources: d'une part, le World energy outlook de l'Agence internationale de l'energie et le Statistical review of world energy de British Petroleum; d'autre part, l'extrapolation des donnees de production passees a l'aide du modele de Hubbert. Dans les deux cas, le volume de ces reserves n'est pas compatible avec les trajectoires les plus emissives considerees par le Giec et limite le rechauffement global a un maximum d'environ 3 deg. C d'ici a 2100. En outre, la diminution attendue de la disponibilite en petrole et en gaz naturel rend crucial, du point de vue de la dynamique economique de nos societes, le developpement de ressources energetiques non carbonees. (auteurs)Additional details
Additional titles
- Original title (French)
- Les scenarios les plus extremes consideres par le Giec sont-ils realistes?
Identifiers
Publishing Information
- Journal Title
- Meteorologie
- Journal Issue
- no.121
- Journal Page Range
- p. 48-54
- ISSN
- 0026-1181
- CODEN
- MTEOAN
INIS
- Country of Publication
- France
- Country of Input or Organization
- France
- INIS RN
- 54092306
- Subject category
- S54: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES;
- Descriptors DEI
- AMBIENT TEMPERATURE; AVAILABILITY; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; EXTRAPOLATION; FOSSIL FUELS; FUEL CONSUMPTION; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; PRODUCTION; PROJECTION SERIES; RESERVES; RESOURCE ASSESSMENT; RESOURCE DEPLETION; RESOURCE EXPLOITATION
- Descriptors DEC
- CARBON COMPOUNDS; CARBON OXIDES; CHALCOGENIDES; CLIMATIC CHANGE; ENERGY CONSUMPTION; ENERGY MODELS; ENERGY SOURCES; FORECASTING; FUELS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MATHEMATICAL SOLUTIONS; NUMERICAL SOLUTION; OXIDES; OXYGEN COMPOUNDS; RESOURCES; SIMULATION
Optional Information
- Notes
- 17 refs.