The future of the global environment. A model-based analysis supporting UNEP's first global environment outlook

Integrated assessments in support of environmental policy have been applied to a number of countries and regions, and to international negotiations. UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook (GEO-1) can be seen as a step towards making the tool of integrated assessment more widely available as a means for focusing action. This technical report documents RIVM's contribution to the GEO-1 report, focusing on the subject 'looking ahead'. It is illustrated that a 'what if' analysis helps to look beyond the delays in environmental and resource processes. This report illustrates that integrated assessment and modelling techniques can be excellent tools for environment and development policy-setting. The methodology, however, will need to be further developed and adapted to the realities and expectations of diverse regions, incorporating alternative policy strategies and development scenarios. This report focuses primarily on the period 1970-2015, because reliable historical data are often only generally available from 1970 onwards and the year 2015 is believed to match the time perspective of decision-makers. The findings of the analysis are reported in terms of six regions, corresponding with the division of the UNEP regional offices. Questions asked are: how will socioeconomic driving forces affect freshwater and land resources, and how will these changes mutually interact, and why are these changes important for society? Chapter 2 deals with the development of the social and economic driving forces. In the Chapters 3 and 4 it is discussed how this pressure influences selected aspects of the environment. Chapter 3 alone addresses the importance of selected elements of the interacting global element cycles for environmental quality, while Chapter 4 addresses land resources, their potential for food production and associated dependence on freshwater resources. The impacts on selected components of natural areas (Chapter 5) and society (Chapter 6) are subsequently addressed