2005 Generation Adequacy Report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France. Update of results up to 2010 - June 2006

As part of the missions assigned to it by law, RTE has completed a partial update, looking ahead to 2010, of the Generation Adequacy Report on the balance between the supply and demand for electricity, originally published in October 2005. This update takes account of known developments in generation supply during the course of 2005, in particular the growth of wind farms and combined cycle projects. The basic hypotheses used to predict possible consumption levels remain the same as those employed in the previous report. The weak growth in electricity consumption observed in 2005 can be attributed to a depressed economic climate - GDP grew by only 1.2% in 2005 - mainly affecting energy intensive industries; Residential and Commercial sectors consumption went on a continuous upwards trend. A longer period of observation is required to confirm or refute any eventual change in the longer term. Whilst awaiting further information that can be used as confirmation, this update has been carried out based on scenarios R1-R2-R3 produced for the 2005 Generation Adequacy Report. On the generation side, an initial scenario referred to as 'base case supply' is designed to identify future changes in requirements compared with existing generating facilities. It only takes account of projects that are currently in the process of being built. These include mainly wind farms begun in 2005, and the re-entry into service of four fuel-oil plants. A second scenario, referred to as 'committed projects', is based on a plausible projection for the development of wind generating facilities, with 4 GW installed by 2010, and the entry into service of three combined cycle gas turbine plants by the same year, without specifying precisely which ones will be built from among the range of projects announced. Under the 'base case supply' scenario along with the 'median demand' scenario, the risk of a shortfall or loss of load occurring exceeds the acceptable level from winter 2009-2010 on. This confirms the need for at least 600 MW by that date, and an additional 1,200 MW the following year. Under the 'committed projects' scenario, the loss of load risk rises between now and 2010 (although it does not exceed the acceptable threshold under the 'median demand' scenario). This would no longer be the case with the 'high demand' scenario: if it were to materialize by 2010, it would require new generating facilities, on top of those already confirmed. It therefore seems clear that at least three combined cycle gas projects, or any other equivalent generating capacity, must be completed by 2010. The development of wind generating facilities and demand side management efforts can also help to reduce the loss of load risk in the years ahead