U.S. oil-import vulnerability: The technical replacement capability

The report examines the changes that have taken place in world oil markets and the U.S. economy since 1984 and provides revised estimates of the technical oil replacement potential that might be attained in the event of a severe and long lasting cutoff of imported oil. The analysis focuses on technologies that are commercially available today or will be within the next 5 years and that are among the most cost-effective methods for replacing oil use in applicable sectors. It also considers the economic impacts of adopting an aggressive oil replacement strategy in a severe oil emergency. The report presents a variety of policy options that could help accelerate the adoption of oil replacement technologies in preparation for, or in response to, a severe supply disruption, or as part of a long-term national policy to reduce import vulnerability. The report concludes that U.S. capability to replace lost oil imports is shrinking. Market forces alone will not be sufficient to overcome the substantial economic and social dislocations that could result from a prolonged major oil disruption