Published December 1998 | Version v1
Journal article

Small signal with background: objective confidence intervals and regions for physical parameters from the principle of maximum likelihood

  • 1. Padua Univ. (Italy). Dip. di Fisica

Description

It is argued that the choice between one-sided and two-sided confidence intervals must be made according to a rule prior to and independent of the data and it is shown that such a rule was found in principle by a statistician about half a century ago. The novel problem with unphysical estimates of a parameter in presence of background is solved in the realm of classical statistics by applying this rule and the principle of maximum likelihood. Optimal confidence intervals are given for the measurement of a bounded magnitude with normal errors, most effective in discriminating a signal next to the bound, and it is shown how to get them in any single case for a bounded discrete variable with background, in general and specifically for Poisson and binomial variables, with two examples of application. The upper limit provided by this method, when the data are consistent with no signal, does not decrease with unphysical estimates going far off the physical values, so removing the last claimed support of Bayesian inference in physics. Procedure are given extending the method to several parameters

Additional details

Publishing Information

Journal Title
Nuovo Cimento. A
Journal Volume
111A
Journal Issue
12
Journal Page Range
p. 1415-1430
ISSN
0369-3546
CODEN
NCIAAT

INIS

Country of Publication
Italy
Country of Input or Organization
Italy
INIS RN
30035514
Subject category
S72: PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS;
Descriptors DEI
ELECTROMAGNETIC FIELDS; MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD FIT; NEUTRINOS; STATISTICS
Descriptors DEC
ELEMENTARY PARTICLES; FERMIONS; LEPTONS; MASSLESS PARTICLES; MATHEMATICS; NUMERICAL SOLUTION