Long-Baseline Neutrino Oscillation Phenomenology

There is a large body of phenomenological work that quantifies the physics reach of future long baseline oscillation experiments. In this article we discuss what assumptions are made about each experiment's ability to predict its far detector signal and background statistics. To understand the difficulty associated with making background predictions even with a near detector, we also examine the current experience of the MINOS experiment, and its ability to predict its far detector signal and background fractions for its electron neutrino oscillation search. Finally, we discuss the program that is needed in order to get from the current state of the art in far detector predictions to what is required (or often simply assumed) for future generations of oscillation experiments.