Serious reactor accidents reconsidered

The chance is determined for damage of the reactor core and that sequel events will cause excursion of radioactive materials into the environment. The gravity of such an accident is expressed by the source term. It appears that the chance for such an accident varies with the source term. In general it is valid that how larger the source term how smaller the chance is for it and vice versa. The chance for excursion is related to two complexes of events: serious damage (meltdown) of the reactor core, and the escape of the liberated radionuclides into the environment. The results are an order of magnitude consideration of the relation between the extent of the source term and the chance for it. From the spectrum of possible source terms three representative ones have been chosen: a large, a medium and a relative small source term. This choice is in accordance with international considerations. The hearth of this study is the estimation of the chance for occurrence of the three chosen source terms for new light-water reactors. refs.; figs.; tabs