Oil: Economics and politics

A review is presented of the evolution of the international petroleum sector since 1973 with a special emphasis on the interdependence between the economic and political factors that influence it. Two issues are focused on: the effects of the nationalization of oil companies on the sharing of oil rents and on changes in the structure of the oil market; and the determination of oil prices. Definitions are presented of oil rents, and the reasons for OPEC nationalization of oil companies are explored. The effects of nationalization on market structures, expansion of free markets, and vertical integration are discussed. The existence of an oil price floor and the reasons for such a floor are examined. It is shown that nationalization induced an internalization of rents by the producing countries, leading to the emergence of a differential rent supported by the politics of the industrialized countries. Nationalization led to the breakup of systems of vertical and horizontal integration, with replacement by a new dual structure with OPEC controlling the upstream activities of the oil sector and oil companies controlling the downstream ones. Prices move between a floor price set by the costs of substitute deposits in the U.S., while the determination of ceiling levels by OPEC rests on successive fragile compromises. Overall oil is still a strategic product, despite the existence of spot markets, forward trading options, etc. 29 refs