Methanol supply issues for alternative fuels demonstration programs

This paper surveys issues affecting the supply of fuel-grade methanol for the California Energy Commission's alternative fuels demonstration programs and operations by other public agencies such as transit and school districts. Establishing stable and reasonably priced sources of methanol (in particular) and of alternative fuels generally is essential to their demonstration and commercialization. Development both of vehicle technologies and of fuel supply and distribution are complementary and must proceed in parallel. However, the sequence of scaling up supply and distribution is not necessarily smooth; achievement of volume thresholds in demand and through-put of alternative fuels are marked by different kinds of challenges. Four basic conditions should be met in establishing a fuel supply: (1) it must be price competitive with petroleum-based fuels, at least when accounting for environmental and performance benefits; (2) bulk supply must meet volumes required at each phase; necessitating resilience among suppliers and a means of designating priority for high value users; (3) distribution systems must be reliable, comporting with end users' operational schedules; (4) volatility in prices to the end user for the fuel must be minimal. Current and projected fuel volumes appear to be insufficient to induce necessary economies of scale in production and distribution for fuel use. Despite their benefits, existing programs will suffer absent measures to secure economical fuel supplies. One solution is to develop sources that are dedicated to fuel markets and located within the end-use region