Does North America need more refining capacity?

The issue of refinery capacity in North America was discussed along with a review of factors influencing the need for added refinery capacity. The paper notes that while North America needs more refining capacity, the announced expansions provide adequate capacity only through 2005. By 2010 it is expected that North America will need an incremental 1.28 million B/SD of crude oil distillation capacity and an incremental 1.30 B/SD of conversion capacity. The economy and product demand growth are the 2 main factors influencing refinery capacity requirements. It was noted that no new refinery facilities will be needed since additional investments can be made in existing facilities because refinery utilization has improved and spare capacity still exists. The drivers for refined product demand growth were described as being economic growth which is directly linked to refined product demand growth, and demand offsets. A review of refined products demand growth for gasoline, diesel and residual fuel oil showed that East Coast gasoline imports from Europe will increase faster than the growth in demand as Europe's gasoline surplus grows with the continued shift to diesel as the primary transportation fuel. Imports of all other refined products are expected to grow at rate of demand growth. Exporting countries will maintain the market share in North America. The trend for shifting world oil supplies to heavier, higher sulphur crudes and non-conventional crude oil means that more conversion investment will be needed to process the crude through methods such as fluidized catalytic cracking, hydrocracking and coking. 8 figs