Restructuring and energy efficiency improvement of the Bulgarian energy economy

The structure of the national energy economy of Bulgaria implies characteristic features that specify low efficiency as regards power production, ecology and economics. Even the qualitative assessments show that these indices stand far away from the standards established in developed countries like Denmark, Finland, Sweden, etc. The best starting position for harmful energy efficiency improvement as well as emission reduction must be based on the restructuring of energy economy. The strategy of restructuring and development of energy economy covers the whole integrated national energy flow system 'resources - end user'. The preliminary study shows that energy efficiency can be increased by 25-30% within a period of 6-10 years using the least-cost investment strategy (including the research and development activities expenses). The study covers the existing structure of energy sector. Scenarios are being elaborated for its development and restructuring in respect to: heat production and transfer; electricity generation and transmission; energy consumption and conservation in residential buildings, public buildings and commercial sector; energy consumption in transport sector and agriculture. The approach for identification of the real potential opportunities in relation to the above stated areas is based on mathematical statistics and stochastic differential equations, multicriterial assessments, approach of self organisation systems and demand-side management. (author)