Uranium enrichment: a competitive market in the future?

Uranium enrichment is the costly step in the nuclear fuel cycle. It has born as a an activity for the military in the 40s, financed by governments, such as the United States (US) and the former Soviet Union. Later, other major nations have joined them in the nuclear weapons development. The activity of enrichment was done in each country that developed nuclear weapons, and the nuclear weapons countries, especially the US and Soviet Union, dictated the mined uranium market. In the 70s, with the growth of the commercial use of nuclear energy, uranium enrichment started to be treated as a market, which gradually have structured itself, strongly influenced by the historical background. Today, the market is an oligopoly of four major government-owned (or government-influenced) companies. In this paper, the trends in the enrichment market are identified, focusing on competitiveness. Through the conduction of a market analysis (past and future), and the study of the market structure evolution, a more competitive market is shown, but still influenced by the governmental participation. Competitiveness is dictated by government support, verticalization capacity, and, mainly by technological advantages. (author)