Numerical modelling: where will we be in ten years

Computer hardware power is increasing following a regular curve since 30 years; the 2000-2005 horizon is easy to extrapolate. But interactions between machine capacity, processing speed, working memory and memory store, pre- and post-processing/stations capacity, process communications/stations capacity, etc. are more difficult to assess, such as the place of one-Teraflop machines in an architecture. The needs for an one Teraflop capacity for various applications are discussed: numerical simulation of diffusion and transport in neutronics, of poly-phasic and reactive flows, of large electric utility networks, of physico-chemistry at molecular levels; artificial intelligence may play a major role. 2 figs