Uncertainties and severe-accident management

Severe-accident management can be defined as the use of existing and or alternative resources, systems, and actions to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. Together with risk management (e.g., changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-indepth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments have been completed, which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities, and can be categorized as (a) dominant sequences with respect to core-melt frequency, (b) dominant sequences with respect to various risk measures, (c) dominant threats that challenge safety functions, and (d) dominant threats with respect to failure of safety systems. Severe-accident management strategies can be generically classified as (a) use of alternative resources, (b) use of alternative equipment, and (c) use of alternative actions. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy, there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These include (a) uncertainty in key phenomena, (b) uncertainty in operator behavior, (c) uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and (d) uncertainty in information availability (i.e., instrumentation). This paper focuses on phenomenological uncertainties associated with severe-accident management strategies