Estimation of SNF amount from various scenarios of power consumption prediction in South Korea - 15394

The Korean government is reviewing the methodology for every condition such as treatment, storage, disposal for the management of spent fuel. In order to establish the control policy of spent fuel, it is necessary to predict how much spent fuel is produced as the time changes. In this thesis the spent fuel production amount was predicted with the basis of the forecast number of the nuclear power plant. Until 2024 the construction plan was applied and until 2035 the number was predicted considering the ratio of nuclear power production. From 2035 to 2100, long term assessment was done assuming the energy consumption in different cases to calculate the necessary power production and then the amount was applied to the of the current power plant production rate to calculate the power production amount by nuclear power plant and the number of necessary nuclear power plants. As the estimated number of the operated power plants of each year and period is correlated with the nuclear power production amount, the main factors of the assessment were spent fuel production amount, the number of operated nuclear power plant, power consumption amount, power production amount, and the proportion of the nuclear power plant to assess. In long-term view the spent fuel production amount differed highly depending on the different conditions so it's thought to be necessary to establish policies after predicting the spent fuel production amount by every case for the management plan of spent fuel. (authors)