Future energy system in environment, economy, and energy problems (1) nuclear system as a solution to the E3 tri-lemma

World energy demand is projected to double or triple by the turn of the 21. century. Particularly in developing countries, global warming is emerging as a serious issue. It makes the harmonization of energy, environment, and economy an urgent and major task for mankind. An optimization analysis has shown that the non-nuclear scenario will drive up the average electric power generation cost to 88-122 mills/kWh in 2100. The FBR-LWR scenario will hold the regional generation cost within the range of between 49 and 57 mills/kWh, while the non-nuclear scenario will inflate it. Taking reprocessing capacity and flat investment of plant into account and comparing the introduction terms of FBR from 2030 to 2070, a decade delay of FBR commercialization is found to reduce nuclear energy for the end of this century by 12-13%. As nuclear energy is the only proven and capable carbon-free energy source today, we should renew our recognition that Pu recycling option can make it sustainable and a growing number of countries should take the option effectively in the 21. century. (authors)