Attack on N-power may shift to economic ground

Opponents to nuclear power who have based their opposition on safety issues may turn to economic arguments. Large increases in construction and fuel costs are undercutting some of the economic advantage of nuclear energy. The author evaluates the pressures that have caused these large increases (focusing on the period between 1966-1969) and concludes that the problems come from more areas than environmental concerns and while serious, will not destroy the nuclear industry. A model was designed to apportion responsibility for the increase among various factors. Licensing time was found to be responsible for 79 percent of cost increases, followed by a decline in the proportion of first units designed for a specific site. Environmental controversies are involved in about 20 percent of the increase and increased construction time was not found to be significant. There are indications that licensing and construction difficulties may have lessened somewhat since the late 1960s and early 1970s. Results from another model indicate that nuclear fuel prices will increase more sharply after the year 2000 because uranium and plutonium recycling is forbidden. The total cost, however, is not found to erode the economic viability relative to coal